The number of migrants flocking to the US-Mexico border from a country known as a hotbed of ISIS recruitment has surged dramatically under President Biden. According to leaked border data , more than 1,500 migrants from Tajikistan crossed the border between October 2020 and May 2024. Notably, at least 500 Tajiks have been apprehended so far this year alone. In stark contrast, only 26 Tajik nationals crossed the border in the previous 14 years combined.
It remains unclear how many of these Tajik migrants were released into the US. However, it is common practice for the majority of migrants caught at the border to claim asylum and be allowed to stay while they await a court hearing. Tajikistan, a small Central Asian country bordering China and Afghanistan, has become a significant source of terrorists for ISIS and its extreme offshoot, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K).
Javed Ali, a former counterterrorism official now teaching at the University of Michigan, raised concerns that the surge of Tajik nationals could include ISIS operatives “seeding people into the United States” in preparation for potential attacks. Supporting this concern, The Post recently reported that ICE had arrested eight Tajik migrants with suspected ties to ISIS who crossed the southern border and then settled in cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia.
The threat posed by ISIS and its affiliates is evident. ISIS-K was responsible for a devastating attack on a concert hall in Moscow, carried out by citizens of Tajikistan, that killed 145 people and injured hundreds more on March 22. Experts highlight that ISIS and its affiliates have been targeting Tajiks to carry out attacks abroad. Texas A&M University professor Edward Lemon, an expert on Central Asia, noted that Tajiks have been increasingly recruited to and played significant roles in terrorist organizations like Islamic State, becoming key to ISIS-K’s externally focused campaigns.
The heavy-handed counter-extremism policies of the Tajikistan government might be contributing to the radicalization of its population. Lemon suggests that these policies could be “causing the very terrorism they seek to address.” Tajikistan’s migration dependency is another factor. With over a million of its 10 million people living in Russia, many Tajiks have sought other destinations, such as Europe, the Gulf, and the US, as life in Russia has become more challenging since the invasion of Ukraine.
FBI Director Chris Wray recently warned that the US is in a heightened threat environment for terrorism, citing both the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel carried out by Hamas and the attack in Moscow. In response, the Biden administration sanctioned four individuals based in Central Asia and Turkey allegedly involved in an ISIS-linked smuggling operation aiding migrants to reach the US. Among those sanctioned is Adam Khamirzaev, commander of the ISIS-Georgia Province, who “provided guidance to this network on a range of activities supporting ISIS and was aware of its efforts to facilitate travelers to the United States.”
ISIS and its affiliates continue to expand their recruitment globally, with a keen interest in Tajiks. Colin Clarke, Director of Research at The Soufan Group, explained that ISIS has been deliberately expanding its recruits geographically, targeting not only Afghans and Pakistanis but also significantly increasing their Central Asian component.
In summary, the influx of Tajik migrants at the US-Mexico border is a complex issue intertwined with global terrorism dynamics, counter-extremism policies, and migration patterns, presenting significant challenges for US national security.
