A leaked document originating from the Iranian parliament provides illuminating insights into Tehran’s strategic anticipation of amplified global repercussions subsequent to the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel. This event prompted Tehran to foresee a broader scope of terrorist designations targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The document, titled “Outlook on Regional Developments After the Gaza War,” meticulously prepared by the parliament’s monitoring department in early December, sheds light on the Iranian regime’s nuanced contemplation of the unfolding dynamics in the Middle East.
During the period of heightened tensions, particularly as Iran-backed militant groups intensified their assaults on Israeli and US targets to coerce Israel into halting its offensive against Hamas, the parliament’s strategic analysis took shape. Of significant concern was Tehran’s recognition of the looming shift in focus by the United States and Israel towards Iran following the Gaza conflict. This foresight anticipated an upsurge in international pressure and the imposition of additional economic sanctions. Moreover, the document articulated a speculative projection that the US and Israel would adopt a multifaceted approach, coined the “Octopus Doctrine,” wherein they would deploy measures targeting Tehran directly rather than confronting its proxy elements scattered across the region.
While the document assessed the probability of direct confrontation with the US or Israel as low, it was compiled prior to a significant event: the attack orchestrated by Tehran-funded Iraqi militants on a US base in Jordan in late January. This assault, alongside other provocations such as Iran’s Houthi rebels’ assaults on Red Sea shipping, exacerbated tensions and briefly escalated the possibility of direct confrontation. However, subsequent developments led to a decrease in attacks by Iran-backed militias after an early February flare-up.
The parliament’s strategic analysis extended to the realm of economic pressures, envisaging heightened scrutiny and disruptions aimed at impeding Tehran’s burgeoning oil sales. Additionally, the document underscored the potential for further European sanctions grounded in UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which underpinned the 2015 nuclear deal, albeit with its military oversight mechanisms expiring in October 2023.
A notable prediction within the document was Washington’s expected endeavor to rally its allies towards designating the IRGC, the linchpin orchestrating numerous regional militia groups, as a terrorist organization. Despite fervent calls by US lawmakers and overwhelming parliamentary votes in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Europe to this effect, no country had taken such a decisive step. This reluctance was largely attributed to the desire to maintain diplomatic avenues with Tehran.
Furthermore, the document envisaged a potential targeting of Iranian foreign resources, including revenues from exports held in foreign banks, as a means of exerting additional pressure on Iran. It envisioned the possibility of a cohesive international coalition uniting against Tehran, ironically echoing the sentiments long championed by Iranian dissidents and opposition figures.
In its comprehensive assessment, the document explored various scenarios, ranging from potential outcomes of the Gaza conflict to the perpetuation of conflict without definitive resolutions. This strategic foresight underscored Tehran’s meticulous analysis of the evolving geopolitical landscape and its preparedness to navigate the complex dynamics therein.
