Iran’s nuclear program, combined with the destabilization stemming from the Gaza conflict, is causing concern among diplomats in the US and Europe. There are apprehensions that factions within Iran advocating for nuclear weapons development may be gaining strength due to the program’s lack of sufficient monitoring. Although Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has reiterated that Iran’s nuclear program is currently for civilian purposes, recent warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) paint a grim picture.
During a recent quarterly meeting of the IAEA governing board, the US and its European allies issued dire warnings about Iran’s lack of cooperation regarding its nuclear program. Rafael Grossi, the director of the IAEA, expressed concerns about the agency’s loss of continuity of knowledge regarding various aspects of Iran’s nuclear activities, such as centrifuge production and uranium enrichment.
Russia’s envoy to the IAEA, Mikhail Ulyanov, also cautioned that the situation could spiral out of control, partly attributing blame to the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. Hardline factions opposing the deal’s constraints on Iran’s nuclear program found success in recent parliamentary elections, further complicating the situation.
The urgency surrounding Iran’s nuclear program has escalated due to its high-level uranium enrichment, nearing the threshold for weapons-grade material. Additionally, senior Iranian figures have raised doubts about Tehran’s commitment to a solely civilian nuclear program. The geopolitical context, including concerns about a potential Iran-Israel conflict and the impending expiration of the 2015 nuclear deal, adds to the complexity of the situation.
The Biden administration’s reluctance to impose direct consequences on Iran, despite its aggressive actions, has emboldened Iranian hardliners. There are warnings that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons could have profound implications for the Middle East. US Central Command Commander Gen Michael Kurilla emphasized the need for Tehran to understand the consequences of its actions, stating that deterrence is temporary.
The US and its allies, particularly the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany), have expressed frustration with Iran’s lack of compliance with its nuclear commitments. They have called for meaningful steps from Iran to de-escalate the situation and have hinted at the possibility of further sanctions through the UN.
While Iran maintains its willingness to negotiate a follow-on nuclear deal, it has also intensified criticism of Israel’s nuclear program. Iranian officials have called for the elimination of Israel’s nuclear arsenal and the placement of its nuclear facilities under international safeguards.
Overall, there is growing volatility surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, with concerns that the next several months may present an opportunity for Iran to advance towards weaponization before potential changes in US leadership.
